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Talijanska središnja banka podigla procjenu gospodarskog rasta u 2021.

| Autor: Hina
(Hina/EPA)

(Hina/EPA)


Talijansko gospodarstvo porast će ove godine blizu pet posto, procijenila je u petak središnja banka, podigavši procjenu zahvaljujući poboljšanju epidemiološke situacije i boljim rezultatima u prvom tromjesečju.

Banka je bila prognozirala da će gospodarstvo ove godine porasti 4,4 posto dok statistički ured početkom mjeseca nije revidirao podatke za prvo tromjesečje, koji su pokazali rast aktivnosti na tromjesečnoj razini za 0,1 posto, Prva je procjena pokazivala pad za 0,4 posto.

U 2022. godini rast će po bančinim novim procjenama usporiti na 4,5 posto.

Procjena središnje banke za ovu godinu nešto je bolja od one vlade u Rimu, koja je u travnju prognozirala rast aktivnosti za 4,5 posto. Vladina procjena za 2022. nešto je pak viša od one središnje banke i predviđa rast aktivnosti za 4,8 posto.

Glavni će pokretači rasta u obje godine po središnjoj banci biti ulaganja, koja će "značajno porasti" zahvaljujući prigušenoj neizvjesnosti povezanoj s pandemijom covida 19, niskim kamatnim stopama i projektima financiranima novcem iz europskog fonda za oporavak.

Gospodarstvo će se vratiti na pretpandmijsku razinu negdje iduće godine, zaključila je središnja banka.

U 2020. godini aktivnosti su pale 8,9 posto, najsnažnije od kraja Drugog svjetskog rata.

Središnja banka procjenjuje i da će inflacija mjerena harmoniziranim indeksom potrošačkih cijena (HICP) ove godine u prosjeku iznositi 1,3, posto, te blago oslabiti u 2022., na 1,2 posto.

U 2020. cijene su gotovo stagnirale.

Stopa nezaposlenosti trebala bi ove godine u prosjeku iznositi 10,2 posto, te kliznuti na 9,9 posto u 2022., procjenjuje središnja banka.

 

ROME (Reuters) - The Italian economy will grow by close to 5% this year, the Bank of Italy said on Friday, raising a previous forecast due to the improving coronavirus situation and an upward revision to first quarter gross domestic product data.

The central bank’s latest projection, part of a regular forecasting exercise coordinated by the European Central Bank, is above the most recent estimate by the Italian government, which forecast growth of 4.5% in April.

The Bank of Italy said growth next year would ease to 4.5%, slightly below the government’s 4.8% projection.

In both years, the expansion will be driven by investments, which will “rise significantly” thanks to reduced uncertainty connected to the COVID-19 pandemic, low interest rates and projects funded by the European Union’s Recovery Fund.

The bank said its official forecast for 2021 was for growth of 4.4%, but this was drawn up before an unusually strong upward revision to first quarter GDP data which would raise average growth by “more than half a percentage point.”

On June 1 national statistics bureau ISTAT reported Q1 GDP growth of 0.1% from the previous quarter, hiking a preliminary estimate of a 0.4% contraction.

The central bank’s latest forecasts reflect a steadily improving outlook for the euro zone’s third largest economy.

In April, it said growth this year would probably be above 4%, while in January, when it made its last official projection, it estimated growth of 3.5%.

The economy contracted by 8.9% last year, Italy’s steepest post-war recession, when activity was hobbled by repeated coronavirus lockdowns.

Italian GDP would return to its pre-pandemic level some time next year, the central bank said.

It forecast that Italian consumer price inflation, based on the EU-harmonised index, would average 1.3% this year and 1.2% in 2022, following the 0.1% price decline last year.

The jobless rate will average 10.2% this year and 9.9% in 2022, the bank’s bulletin said.

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